Tag: continuing resolution

This Is The Week We Find Out If Trump Is A Shutdown Blowhard

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The federal government will shut down a week from today if Donald Trump carries out his often-made threat to veto the continuing resolution that will prevent Washington from turning into a pumpkin on September 30th at midnight.

So…at least as far as this shutdown is concerned…we’re finally going to find out whether Trump is all talk and no action since he swore this past March never to sign another funding bill without money for the wall he wants built between the United States and Mexico.

To be fair, Trump has also often made threats over the past six months not to cause a government shutdown. As I’ve been posting (most recently here), where Trump stands on shutting down the government on any day has been anything but consistent. When it comes to a shutdown, what he has said and when he has said it has had no relation to what he has said the day before.

It’s very possible that Trump has been doing nothing more than pounding his chest the past few months.

But with the new fiscal year set to start next Monday and only 3 of the 12 appropriations enacted, it’s finally put-up-or-shut-up time for Trump.

At this point there are few facts and lots of speculating about this situation.

The facts:

1. Congress combined two – for the Departments of Defense and Health and Human Services — of the remaining 2019 appropriations into a single bill. That combined appropriation has already passed the Senate and presumably will be adopted this week by the House week.

2. The GOP congressional leadership added a continuing resolution for the seven appropriations that will not be adopted by September 30th to this DOD-HHS “minibus.” That CR will keep all the agencies and departments in those seven bills funded until December 7th.

3. The DOD-HHS-CR includes no new funds for Trump’s wall.

4. Trump’s most recent statement on the shutdown came when he tweeted late last week that the DOD-HHS-CR bill that doesn’t provide the $5 billion he wants for his wall is “ridiculous.”

So, with less than a week to go, there’s a clear need for a CR but no way to know what Trump will do.

The Speculation:

As Amber Phllips (@byamberphillips) reported last week in The Washington Post, the speculation about what Trump will do is rampant.

1. On the one hand, congressional Republicans don’t want a shutdown before the election and Trump supposedly has agreed to wait until the December 7th deadline to push the wall issue.

2. On the other hand, in a very Trumpian fashion, the president has indicated several times since meeting with Ryan and McConnell that he might not be willing to wait until December to get the funding he wants.

3. As much as he needs to work with the GOP leadership, Trump seems to be taking his cues on this issue as much from Sean Hannity and other conservative commentators as he is from Ryan and McConnell.

4. It’s possible that Trump realizes both that Ryan and McConnell have been playing him for close to two years about funding for his wall and that getting what he wants after the election will be more difficult than it will be now.

5. It’s also possible…and perhaps even likely…that Trump will see a fight over funding for his wall as the best way to reinvigorate the immigration issue in a big way before the election.

6. And it’s definitely possible that Trump will see a shutdown next week as a great way to divert attention away from Mueller, Manafort, Cohen, Bob Woodard’s book and the Kavanaugh nomination, especially if the Kavanaugh nomination doesn’t go well.

But it’s also very possible that Trump has been doing nothing more than pounding his chest the past few months and in the end will prove he’s a blowhard by doing nothing more than signing the CR and claiming a great victory.

We’ll know the truth in just days.

Follow Stan Collender on Twitter @thebudgetguy.

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GOP Congress Gives Trump Its Middle Finger

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No, it’s not oversight hearings into…well…anything.

And it’s certainly not a subpoena, legislation to protect the Mueller investigation or the rejection of his Supreme Court nominee.

But the GOP congressional leadership’s decision last week not to give Donald Trump the $5 billion he wants for a wall between the United States and Mexico before the election and then to make it much harder for him to veto the legislation that codifies that decision was the closest House and Senate Republicans have come since Trump was elected to publicly giving him their collective middle finger.

First, Congress decided to combine several of the fiscal 2019 appropriations together both to deal with the very limited amount of time left before the government shuts down on October 1 and to make it more likely that the wide swath of programs funded in these small omnibus appropriations (hence the name “minibus”) would attract enough votes to pass the House and Senate.

This was an act of desperation and defiance by the Republican leadership.

Second, the GOP leadership then decided to attach the continuing resolution — the bill that will be needed to keep open the agencies and departments not included in either of the two minibuses — to the combined Defense-Health and Human Services appropriation. Given that the White House staff (but not Trump himself) has indicated that the president will sign that bill, the thinking was that this will reduce or even eliminate the chances of government shutdown before the election.

This was an act of desperation and defiance by the Republican congressional leadership. Knowing that they weren’t going to approve the billions of dollars Trump has been insisting on for his wall and that they would face his wrath when they didn’t, the GOP Congress made it significantly more painful for the president to react negatively when he didn’t get what he was demanding.

This has been coming for months given that the congressional Republicans’ political needs differ so sharply from Trump’s heading into the mid-term elections.

With polls showing the Republican control of the House and Senate increasingly at risk, a government shutdown is the last thing the GOP leadership wants five weeks before Election Day and just as early voting gets underway in many states.

Trump, on the other hand, may see a shutdown over his wall as the best way to raise the reddest of red meat issues — immigration — with his base.

And Trump’s need to energize his base took on increased importance last week with Paul Manafort’s plea deal, the release of Bob Woodward’s book and the continuing aftermath of the New York Times anonymous op-ed.

So far, Trump has been anything but consistent about a shutdown.

Trump may see a government shutdown as the most dramatic thing available to him right now to divert attention. Other very dramatic diversions, such as firing Attorney General Jeff Sessions, all seem unlikely before the election.

He may also see it as part of his continuing anti-impeachment strategy to energize the voters he will need to keep Congress from moving forward.

What’s most interesting and potentially most politically significant about this are that the Republicans in Congress (1) decided to devise an appropriations strategy that unambiguously helps themselves rather than Trump, (2) didn’t accommodate the White House in even some small way and (3) challenged Trump so openly.

In addition, the congressional leadership did this not knowing whether it would work. As I noted in this post, So far, Trump has been anything but consistent about a shutdown and there’s no way to guarantee he will be more rational between now and October 1 than he has been so far.

Indeed, given Manafort et al., it may be safer to assume that he won’t be.

In other words, Trump could easily decide to reply to the congressional GOP’s middle finger by giving it right back to them.

Follow Stan Collender on Twitter @thebudgetguy.

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Current 60% Chance Of A Government Shutdown Very Likely To Increase Further

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Today, with exactly (and just) five weeks to go before the start of the next federal fiscal year, nothing has changed to make the odds of a government shutdown less than they were before the House of Representatives began its summer-Labor Day recess.

As a result, I’m sticking with my previous estimate that there’s a 60 percent chance the federal government will shut down this October 1.

That is, I’m sticking with 60 percent for now. If anything, the likelihood of a shutdown is only going to increase from here.

Yes, as Carl Hulse pointed out in the New York Times, the Senate did make some progress on the 2019 appropriations this summer (although I disagree with his assertion that the Senate has “got its groove back”).

But there are still only 11 legislative days left in September and Congress as a whole isn’t close to completing the work it has to do on all the 2019 spending bills to get them signed by the president before the government turns into a pumpkin at midnight September 30.

Besides, Congress getting the 12 individual appropriations to the president isn’t the most important question.

As I’ve been posting here for months and as Sarah Ferris reported in Politico last Friday, no one has any idea whether President Trump will sign any appropriations if Congress doesn’t provide at least $5 billion for the wall he wants to build between the United States and Mexico.

And although he no longer needs to pay for his military parade, you can’t help but wonder whether Trump will now also demand at least initial funding for his space force as the price for his signature.

To say the least, up to now Trump has consistently been inconsistent and unreliable when dealing with Congress on budget issues. Congressional Republicans have every reason to be very concerned about whether, if he has the need, Trump will shut down the government.

And given last week’s Cohen/Manafort/Pecker/Weiselberg/Mueller events, Trump seems increasingly likely to have the need to do just that. If, as seems likely, Congress again refuses to appropriate the billions he wants for his wall, Trump will be handed a relatively easy way to show that he’s in charge; to look tough on immigration, the most important issue he has ridden since the day he announced his candidacy; and to reconfirm his dealmaking abilities.

Congressional Republicans have every reason to be very concerned about whether, if he has the need, Trump will shut down the government.

Being able to dictate the terms of a deal on a continuing resolution — the funding bill most likely to be needed to keep the federal government from shutting its doors — should not be underestimated as a major motivation for the president.

Over just the last few weeks, Trump has been unable to control Robert Mueller, Omarosa Manigault Newman, Michael Cohen and Attorney General Jeff Sessions. He’s also had to order his secretary of State not to travel to North Korea because the North Koreans were not cooperating, deal with his tariffs not being well-received and confront the fact that his tax cut is less popular than the Affordable Care Act.

In addition, as his extensive use of executive orders and pardons demonstrate, Trump loves situations where he can make a unilateral decision…like being the sole person who may veto the CR.

Trump may also see this as his last chance the fund the wall. While there still might be an opportunity during the coming lame duck session of Congress, trump is likely to have far less leverage with recalcitrant Republicans then given that they will no longer be itching to get back to their districts and states to campaign for relection.

In addition, a Democratic takeover of one or both houses will kill almost all chances of the wall ever being funded before Trump has to run for relection.

All of this is why I think there’s still a 60 percent (but rising) chance we’ll have a government shutdown this fall.

Follow Stan Collender on Twitter @thebudgetguy

 

Get Ready: This Fall’s Federal Budget Debate Will Be A Real Cliffhanger

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In alphabetical order…Michael Cohen, Stormy Daniels, Rick Gates, Paul Manafort, Omarosa Manigault Newman, Scott Pruitt, Vladimir Putin, Roger Stone and, of course, Donald Trump haven’t just dominated the headlines over the past six months, they’ve sucked the air out of most federal activities.

This is especially true of the federal budget which (it pains me to admit) is absolutely boring compared to all of the salacious, despicable and embarrassing stories with which it has had to compete for attention this year.

That’s about to end. Big time.

No, Manafort et. al. won’t be going away. If the brief history of the Trump presidency is any indication, new investigations, indictments, tweets and aberrant personalities will emerge this fall to supplant those that have already appeared.

But for the first time since this past March, the federal budget is about to return to the big screen in Washington…not as a comedy or action film, but as an old-fashioned cliffhanger.

Last March was when President Trump swore he would shutdown the government if the next funding bill Congress sent him didn’t include billions of dollars for the wall he wants to build between the Unites States and Mexico. He’s since repeated that threat multiple times.

The fiscal 2018 omnibus appropriation he signed in March will expire at midnight September 30. That means the GOP’s House and Senate majorities will soon be facing the implications of Trump’s budget blood oath from almost six months ago.

This is going to be pure melodrama with the fiscal equivalents of villains, damsels in distress tied to the tracks and, perhaps, one or more heroes and heroines.

If you think I’m kidding, watch the cliff hanger movie trailer below and then read the following top ten questions about what is coming over the next six weeks out loud. I’ll bet you can’t help but sound like you’re hyping the next installment.

1.  Will Donald Trump carry out his dastardly plot to shut down the federal government on October 1 if Congress doesn’t provide at least $5 billion for his wall?

2. Will Trump now insist that shutting down the government depends on him also getting funding for his just-proposed but much-ridiculed space force?

3. Will House and Senate Republican leaders try to fool Trump into thinking that the best moment to shut the government will be after the election during the lame duck session of Congress?

4. Will the Congressional Budget Office and Treasury Department reports that will released just weeks before the election that confirm Trump’s big deficits finally force Republicans to face the budget realities they have been so desperate to avoid?

5. Will the confirmed Trump deficits increase the already strong dislike of the GOP tax bill even further just before the midterms?

6. Will congressional Democrats, who were blamed for the last government shutdown, be blamed again?

7. Will congressional Republicans ease the political pain of a shutdown by passing one or more 2019 appropriations so some popular departments and agencies won’t be affected?

8. Will Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney carry out his diabolical plan to lessen the political impact of a shutdown by classifying routine federal functions like national parks as essential government services that must stay open.

9. Does the House’s plan to pass another tax cut, which the Senate has already said it won’t consider, foolishly make a continuing resolution and government shutdown even more likely?

10. Which programs will really be tied to the track as the budget train gets ever closer?

 

Follow Stan Collender on Twitter @thebudgetguy

Don’t Leave Just Yet…There’s so much more here:

Attention Conservatives: The Deficit Is Not Just A Spending Problem
Trump’s Space Force Is Really A Space Farce
GOP Won’t Be Able To Hide From It’s Big Deficits Before The Election After All
Trump’s Deficits Will Cause Very Serious Challenges For Multiple Generations Of Americans
Here’s What I Told NPR This Morning About The Deficit (Spoiler Alert: It’s Not Pretty)
Trump’s Economic Lies, Damn Lies And Statistics Revealed For All To See
Raising The Chances Of A Government Shutdown This Fall To 60%
OMB Director Mick Mulvaney Says CBO Was Right After All

 

Pruitt And Kennedy Leaving Increases The Chances Of Government Shutdown To Over 50%

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Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy’s announcement two weeks ago that he will retire and Scott Pruitt’s resignation last week as administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency has greatly increased the chances of a federal government shutdown this fall.

We were already barreling toward yet another government shutdown before the events of the last few weeks transpired to make it even more likely. As I’ve been posting for months (look here and here, for example), the very limited congressional action so far this year on the fiscal 2019 appropriations had already made it likely that Congress would again have to pass and the president sign a single funding bill — a continuing resolution — to keep the federal government open when the fiscal year began on October 1.

Trump’s inflexibility on the wall will likely get even worse this fall if he continues to need immigration-related issues to inflame his base.

But Congress adopting that CR was always going to be the relatively easy part. The more difficult would be getting President Trump to sign the bill. Trump has been insisting he won’t do it unless the House and Senate appropriate $25 billion for the wall he wants built between the United States and Mexico.

Over the past two years, the Republican-controlled Congress has refused to fund Trump’s wall multiple times and each time Trump has backed down.

At this point, however, Trump appears to be more adamant about carrying through on his veto threat, and Trump’s inflexibility on the wall will likely get even worse this fall if he continues to need immigration-related issues to inflame his base.

Congress was already facing an extreme time crunch on appropriations. Even with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) announcement that he was going to cancel the August recess this year, the Senate only had a very limited number of legislative days left before October 1.

But McConnell’s decision to cancel the August recess was made long before there was a need for the Senate to confirm a new Supreme Court justice and a new administrator for the Environmental Protection Administration. At that point, McConnell just wanted the Senate to deal with other pending (especially judicial) nominations and…wait for it…fiscal 2019 appropriations.

Kennedy/Pruitt totally changes this equation. Although approving a new EPA administrator can be delayed until the all-but-certain lame duck session of Congress in November and December, confirming the Supreme Court nominee before the election is now Trump’s and McConnell’s highest legislative priority.

That pushes the fiscal 2019 appropriations down to no better than third with the Kennedy replacement and other nominations both higher in the pecking order. They could even be fourth if the new EPA administrator confirmation is also considered a must-be-done-before-the-election activity.

All of this will make it much less likely that any of the individual 2019 appropriations will be adopted by the start of the fiscal year and, therefore, that a CR will be needed to keep the government open.

And that will play directly into Trump’s hands by making his weapon of choice — a veto of a CR — more powerful.

Had Congress made the 2019 appropriations a priority before Kennedy/Pruitt, it would have already reduced the value of the Trump veto threat.

But because the GOP House and Senate leadership didn’t do that, the Kennedy retirement and Pruitt resignation means that a CR and the chance of a Trump veto over funding for the wall is much more likely.

That makes the chances of a shutdown this fall at least 50 percent now, and likely to go up even further in the days ahead.

Coming This Thursday

Yes, Trump Absolutely Will Shut Down This Government This Fall

There’s much more here right now:

The House and Senate Appropriations Committee Are A Total Disgrace

The Definitive Larry Kudlow Take Down

Congress Could Use The Budget Process To Stop Trump’s Child Separation Policy

You’ve Been Warned: Trump’s Trillion Dollar Budget Deficits Are Here To Stay

Fasten Your Seat Belts: It’s Going To Be A Very Bumpy Rest Of The Year In Washington

In the midst of all of the tweet storms, special counsel and criminal investigations, deep state conspiracy paranoias, off and on summits, tariffs imposed on our allies and multiple pardons, it’s easy to forget that Congress and the White House still have routine legislative responsibilities — like appropriations — that will need to be completed over the next few months.

These legislative responsibilities could include the most contentious domestic issues the Republican-controlled Congress and Trump administration will have to deal with all year such as Planned Parenthood, immigration, a wall between the United States and Mexico and multiple highly contentious domestic spending cuts.

Each one’s political significance will be greatly magnified by the very narrow GOP Senate majority, the hyper-partisanship, a lame duck speaker, almost 50 GOP retirements in the House, an abandoned budget process, a very unpredictable president and an extremely high stakes congressional election that’s only five months away.

In other words…To paraphrase Betty Davis in “All About Eve,” Fasten your seat belts, it’s going to be a bumpy rest of 2018 in Washington.

According to Congress.gov, as of today, none of the 12 funding bills for fiscal 2019 have passed Congress.

It’s not unusual for no appropriations to be approved by now. But there’s usually more time between June and when the fiscal year begins on October 1 for Congress to do what needs to be done than there will be this year.

If the published schedules aren’t changed, the House now only plans to be in session for 35 more days before fiscal 2019 begins; the Senate only expects to be in session for 51 days, although Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) indicated last week that some or all of the Senate’s August recess will be cancelled.

But 35, 51 or some other number very likely overstates the actual amount of time that will be available for legislative work given Congress’s tendency not to take many votes on Mondays and Fridays.

This very limited about of time would be problematic in a good year if House and Senate Republicans were working together, the House Freedom Caucus wasn’t making Speaker Paul Ryan’s (R-WI) final days as speaker miserable as it did on the recent agriculture bill and the president wasn’t demanding funds for a wall that Congress has refused to provide multiple times.

But with all of these things happening, the very limited amount of time that’s left makes “problematic” into the best-case scenario this year.

It also makes yet another continuing resolution – which in recent years has become the unfortunate but very standard operating procedure on Capitol Hill — an almost sure bet to be needed to prevent a government shutdown just before the election.

And because CRs can be filibustered, that will give Senate Democrats influence over a short-term funding bill that, with their changes, isn’t likely to be acceptable to the House Freedom Caucus or the White House.

In theory, Trump should want to do what Ryan and McConnell want: put a CR in place as early as possible so Congress can recess quickly and GOP incumbents running for reelection have as much time as possible to defend their seats.

In fact, Ryan and McConnell should be seriously considering doing a continuing resolution before the start of the August-Labor Day recess that will keep the government operating through the lame duck session so Congress can stay home in September as well.

But Trump is more likely to view his own congressional leadership’s strong desire to recess before the election as something that gives him leverage to get his wall rather than as a way to make continuing GOP House and Senate majorities more certain.

Add to that the extreme displeasure from conservative commentators after he signed the 2018 omnibus appropriation in March and the fact that healthcare and immigration are hot button issues for the White House, congressional Republicans and Democrats, having a CR in place in time to prevent a government shutdown has to be considered anything but certain.

But even if a continuing resolution is enacted by October 1, the road to get there will be anything but smooth. It is likely to set the new bar for bumpy rides in Washington.