Tag: shutdown

Pruitt And Kennedy Leaving Increases The Chances Of Government Shutdown To Over 50%

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Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy’s announcement two weeks ago that he will retire and Scott Pruitt’s resignation last week as administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency has greatly increased the chances of a federal government shutdown this fall.

We were already barreling toward yet another government shutdown before the events of the last few weeks transpired to make it even more likely. As I’ve been posting for months (look here and here, for example), the very limited congressional action so far this year on the fiscal 2019 appropriations had already made it likely that Congress would again have to pass and the president sign a single funding bill — a continuing resolution — to keep the federal government open when the fiscal year began on October 1.

Trump’s inflexibility on the wall will likely get even worse this fall if he continues to need immigration-related issues to inflame his base.

But Congress adopting that CR was always going to be the relatively easy part. The more difficult would be getting President Trump to sign the bill. Trump has been insisting he won’t do it unless the House and Senate appropriate $25 billion for the wall he wants built between the United States and Mexico.

Over the past two years, the Republican-controlled Congress has refused to fund Trump’s wall multiple times and each time Trump has backed down.

At this point, however, Trump appears to be more adamant about carrying through on his veto threat, and Trump’s inflexibility on the wall will likely get even worse this fall if he continues to need immigration-related issues to inflame his base.

Congress was already facing an extreme time crunch on appropriations. Even with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) announcement that he was going to cancel the August recess this year, the Senate only had a very limited number of legislative days left before October 1.

But McConnell’s decision to cancel the August recess was made long before there was a need for the Senate to confirm a new Supreme Court justice and a new administrator for the Environmental Protection Administration. At that point, McConnell just wanted the Senate to deal with other pending (especially judicial) nominations and…wait for it…fiscal 2019 appropriations.

Kennedy/Pruitt totally changes this equation. Although approving a new EPA administrator can be delayed until the all-but-certain lame duck session of Congress in November and December, confirming the Supreme Court nominee before the election is now Trump’s and McConnell’s highest legislative priority.

That pushes the fiscal 2019 appropriations down to no better than third with the Kennedy replacement and other nominations both higher in the pecking order. They could even be fourth if the new EPA administrator confirmation is also considered a must-be-done-before-the-election activity.

All of this will make it much less likely that any of the individual 2019 appropriations will be adopted by the start of the fiscal year and, therefore, that a CR will be needed to keep the government open.

And that will play directly into Trump’s hands by making his weapon of choice — a veto of a CR — more powerful.

Had Congress made the 2019 appropriations a priority before Kennedy/Pruitt, it would have already reduced the value of the Trump veto threat.

But because the GOP House and Senate leadership didn’t do that, the Kennedy retirement and Pruitt resignation means that a CR and the chance of a Trump veto over funding for the wall is much more likely.

That makes the chances of a shutdown this fall at least 50 percent now, and likely to go up even further in the days ahead.

Coming This Thursday

Yes, Trump Absolutely Will Shut Down This Government This Fall

There’s much more here right now:

The House and Senate Appropriations Committee Are A Total Disgrace

The Definitive Larry Kudlow Take Down

Congress Could Use The Budget Process To Stop Trump’s Child Separation Policy

You’ve Been Warned: Trump’s Trillion Dollar Budget Deficits Are Here To Stay

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This Was The Worst Week EVER For GOP Federal Budget Nonsense

 

There was so much Trump White House-caused and GOP Congress-induced nonsense (and definitely I’m pulling my punches here) last week on almost everything having to do with the federal budget that it’s impossible to pick the worst of the lot.

Maybe it was Donald Trump confirming what budget wonks like me have been predicting for some time: There’s a real chance he’ll throw a tantrum this fall and shutdown the federal government if he doesn’t get the $25 billion dollars he wants for his wall between the U.S. and Mexico.

Or maybe it was the president telling the Pentagon to start a new space force (Flash Gordon lives! See below) even though Congress hasn’t provided an appropriation for it.

Perhaps it was that (contrary to recently established Republican and Trump orthodoxy that an authorization is needed for every appropriation) the Trump space force hasn’t even been authorized yet so no appropriation (according to the GOP) should be possible.

(FYI…Contrary to what Republicans say, there is no constitutional or statutory requirement for authorizations.)

It could be the House and Senate Appropriations Committees refusing to do their jobs by not asking where the White House is getting the money to pay for everything involved in separating children from their families.

Then again, it really could be the Senate’s outright rejection of one of Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney’s highest priorities — the first of what we’ve repeatedly been told will be multiple “rescission” bills.

The GOP Senate majority rejected the Trump rescission even though it would have mostly cut previously enacted appropriations that were never going to be spent anyway.

Of course, it could be the federal government consolidation plan that Mulvaney announced (and made sure he himself got credit for developing) but which at this point in the congressional session has little-to-no chance of being considered and even less of being adopted.

(Consider this: Mulvaney couldn’t even get the GOP-controlled Senate to approve a rescission plan that was almost totally symbolic. How is he ever going to convince it to do a massive reorganization that will have a far more negative political impact?)

There was also the House Budget Committee’s approval of a fiscal 2019 budget resolution that was adopted more than two months after the statutory deadline for Congress as a whole — not just a committee — to agree on something.

But missing the deadline by two-plus months was actually far less ludicrous than the fact that the committee-approved budget resolution includes $5.4 trillion in politically unacceptable cuts to Medicare, Medicaid and other mandatory programs that may never be voted on by the full House and won’t be considered by the Senate.

In other words, the House Budget Committee was both very late and doing something that was incredibly superfluous. Saying that it was “symbolic” is giving it way to much credit.

And all this happened just this past week.

 

There’s much more here:

Congress Could Use The Budget Process To Stop Trump’s Child Separation Policy

You’ve Been Warned: Trump’s Trillion Dollar Budget Deficits Are Here To Stay

Fasten Your Seat Belts: It’s Going To Be A Very Bumpy Rest Of The Year In Washington