Tag: shutdown

Trump May Not Really Want A Government Shutdown Now Over His Wall

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I’ve consistently been one of the most bullish people about the possibility of government shutdowns. I’ve seen one around every corner, behind every door and under every rug.

But I’m changing my stripes — or animals — from bull to bear over the potential Trump-induced shutdown this December that some think is close to inevitable. It may be far less likely than many are assuming.

If there is a fight, it will be over funding for the wall President Trump wants built between the United States and Mexico. GOP leaders talked Trump into waiting until after the election to make a stand and, with the continuing resolution set to expire in less than two weeks (take a look at the countdown clock on the budgetguy.blog’s home page for the exact number of days as of when you read this), the deadline is rapidly approaching.

But is the showdown rapidly approaching as well?

On the one hand, it makes sense for Trump to push now for the $5 billion (out of what’s been reported to be a total cost of $25 billion or more) he wants for his wall in fiscal 2019. With Republican control of the House of Representatives about to end, this December could be Trump’s last chance to get it.

Trump has shown himself to be a total wimp when it comes to making good on his previous threats to shut the government.

Or, if he waits until the next Congress, the only way Trump might get the funds may be to make a deal with the new Democratic House majority that will likely want something he finds especially distasteful — his tax returns, compliance by his family and cabinet with congressional subpoenas, etc. — in exchange.

If that’s his thinking, a shutdown this December will be a real possibility.

But that might not be his thinking.

Trump may actually prefer not to get his wall this December because it may be politically better for him to:

1. Keep the issue of the wall alive over the next two years so he can continue to use it as he runs for reelection.

2. Use the issue to enrage and motivate his base over immigration.

3. Blame the next Congress’s Democrat-controlled House rather than this Congress’s Republican-controlled House and Senate for not providing the funding.

For all his chest thumping, tweet-storming and budget braggadocio, Trump has shown himself to be a total wimp over shutting the government. Rather than vetoing an appropriation that didn’t have the money he wanted for his wall, Trump has repeatedly…and very noticeably…backed down.

That’s one of this biggest reasons that what Trump said to reporters just a week or so ago –“This would be a very good time to do a shutdown” — wasn’t taken as anything but more of his huffing and puffing and yet another empty threat to blow the government’s house down.

It’s also one of the big reasons there may not be as much to this latest shutdown ultimatum as it appears.

Follow Stan Collender on Twitter by clicking here on @thebudgetguy.

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Donald Trump Is A Federal Budget Wuss

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The fiscal 2019 appropriations Congress is sending the White House include much more spending than the president requested, don’t have most of the spending cuts he proposed, don’t provide the $5 billion he demanded for the wall he wants built between the United States and Mexico and don’t stop funding for Planned Parenthood.

That’s much more than just a slap of Trump’s face by the GOP-controlled House and Senate: It’s a crack upside his head with a 2×4.

And, in response to Congress’s almost wholesale rejection of his budget priorities, Trump did…wait for it…nothing, or at least nothing meaningful.

Yes, on multiple occasions over the past year Trump huffed and puffed and menacingly threatened to blow Congress’s house down by shutting the federal government if he didn’t get what he wanted.

But when faced with the opportunity this week to veto the legislation that didn’t provide any money for his wall and actually to shut down the government, Trump ran from the fight he had been threatening so loudly for so long. While he was 250 miles away from Capital Hill in New York, Trump meekly said he would avoid the confrontation with Congress and sign whatever he was sent.

In other words, Donald Trump is a federal budget wuss.

This was a not strategic retreat by the White House. If anything, it’s going to be even harder for Trump to get what he wants on spending and taxes in a lame duck session than it was before. This was his best chance.

This is especially true of funding for his wall. Congress has already refused multiple times to provide the funds Trump wants and that isn’t likely to change after the election. That’s particularly true if the Democratic wave many are predicting actually happens and Trump’s policies become even less important to Republicans.

It’s also true of Trump’s other budget priorities. The two “minibus” appropriations that Trump’s signature will enact will provide funding for the full fiscal year and include the majority of the spending the president gets to approve. Trump simply won’t be able to have that much of an impact on what’s left even if he tries.

But even more important than the rejection of his budget policies is the fact that Congress played Trump like a virtuoso and he was unable and unwilling to do anything about it.

That kind of weakness is always recognized and seldom, if ever, forgotten.

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Trump Is About To Kiss His Wall Goodbye

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Donald Trump is about to give away what could be his last chance to get Congress to fund the wall he wants built between the Unites States and Mexico.

Trump wanted $5 billion for his wall this year, but the Republican-controlled Congress once again refused to appropriate anything for it in either the five full-year appropriations or the continuing resolution it has sent to the White House.

Trump could express his displeasure and disappointment over Congress refusing yet again to fund his wall by vetoing the CR, triggering a government shutdown and forcing a showdown with Congress over the issue, and for a time it looked and sounded like he might do just that.

But rather than make a stand over funding for his wall, Trump stated yesterday during an appearance in New York with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that he would not shut the government before the election over this issue.

Trump, the president who always claims he’s great at dealmaking, let the supposedly friendly GOP-controlled Congress play him big time. Congress didn’t want a pre-election shutdown, gave Trump absolutely nothing for his wall to get his cooperation and then called his bluff by in effect telling him to take it or leave it.

And, rather than trying to cut any kind of deal with the House and Senate controlled by his own party, Trump took it.

in other words, for all of his bluster and promises over the past six months that he wouldn’t sign a CR, omnibus appropriation or regular appropriation if it didn’t fund his wall, Trump folded.

Trump didn’t even get a promise from the GOP congressional leadership that it would fund his wall in the lame duck session of Congress. All House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) told the president was that a shutdown after the election would be better than a shutdown before…and he bought it.

It’s very likely that the lame duck Congress won’t provide funds for Trump’s wall given that it has repeatedly refused to do so up to now and the retiring and defeated members will be less reliable votes for the White House.

Funding for the wall will be even less likely if the Democratic wave many are expecting in this election actually occurs and is interpreted by Republicans as a rejection of Trump and his policies.

And a Democratic House and/or Senate majority over the next two years is even less likely to fund Trump’s wall that the Republican majorities have been the past two years.

Trump still has three days to change his mind and veto the take-it-or-leave it deal Congress is offering him. If he doesn’t, Trump’s wall may never be heard from again.

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This Is The Week We Find Out If Trump Is A Shutdown Blowhard

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The federal government will shut down a week from today if Donald Trump carries out his often-made threat to veto the continuing resolution that will prevent Washington from turning into a pumpkin on September 30th at midnight.

So…at least as far as this shutdown is concerned…we’re finally going to find out whether Trump is all talk and no action since he swore this past March never to sign another funding bill without money for the wall he wants built between the United States and Mexico.

To be fair, Trump has also often made threats over the past six months not to cause a government shutdown. As I’ve been posting (most recently here), where Trump stands on shutting down the government on any day has been anything but consistent. When it comes to a shutdown, what he has said and when he has said it has had no relation to what he has said the day before.

It’s very possible that Trump has been doing nothing more than pounding his chest the past few months.

But with the new fiscal year set to start next Monday and only 3 of the 12 appropriations enacted, it’s finally put-up-or-shut-up time for Trump.

At this point there are few facts and lots of speculating about this situation.

The facts:

1. Congress combined two – for the Departments of Defense and Health and Human Services — of the remaining 2019 appropriations into a single bill. That combined appropriation has already passed the Senate and presumably will be adopted this week by the House week.

2. The GOP congressional leadership added a continuing resolution for the seven appropriations that will not be adopted by September 30th to this DOD-HHS “minibus.” That CR will keep all the agencies and departments in those seven bills funded until December 7th.

3. The DOD-HHS-CR includes no new funds for Trump’s wall.

4. Trump’s most recent statement on the shutdown came when he tweeted late last week that the DOD-HHS-CR bill that doesn’t provide the $5 billion he wants for his wall is “ridiculous.”

So, with less than a week to go, there’s a clear need for a CR but no way to know what Trump will do.

The Speculation:

As Amber Phllips (@byamberphillips) reported last week in The Washington Post, the speculation about what Trump will do is rampant.

1. On the one hand, congressional Republicans don’t want a shutdown before the election and Trump supposedly has agreed to wait until the December 7th deadline to push the wall issue.

2. On the other hand, in a very Trumpian fashion, the president has indicated several times since meeting with Ryan and McConnell that he might not be willing to wait until December to get the funding he wants.

3. As much as he needs to work with the GOP leadership, Trump seems to be taking his cues on this issue as much from Sean Hannity and other conservative commentators as he is from Ryan and McConnell.

4. It’s possible that Trump realizes both that Ryan and McConnell have been playing him for close to two years about funding for his wall and that getting what he wants after the election will be more difficult than it will be now.

5. It’s also possible…and perhaps even likely…that Trump will see a fight over funding for his wall as the best way to reinvigorate the immigration issue in a big way before the election.

6. And it’s definitely possible that Trump will see a shutdown next week as a great way to divert attention away from Mueller, Manafort, Cohen, Bob Woodard’s book and the Kavanaugh nomination, especially if the Kavanaugh nomination doesn’t go well.

But it’s also very possible that Trump has been doing nothing more than pounding his chest the past few months and in the end will prove he’s a blowhard by doing nothing more than signing the CR and claiming a great victory.

We’ll know the truth in just days.

Follow Stan Collender on Twitter @thebudgetguy.

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Trump Has Become Hamlet. To Shut Down Or Not To Shutdown: That Is The Question

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The question of whether President Donald Trump will shut down the federal government has now become the budget equivalent of a scene from Shakespeare’s “Hamlet,” with Trump endlessly reciting his own version of the “To be or not to be” soliloquy.

As a result, with just 7 legislative days to go before the end of the fiscal year, and even though congressional Republican leaders are trying hard to prevent it from happening, there’s still little-to-no certainty about whether Trump will cause the government to shut its doors if he doesn’t get the billions of dollars he wants to build a wall between the United States and Mexico.

Trump has become less rather than more predictable over the past few weeks as the shutdown deadline has gotten closer and as he’s become preoccupied with Mueller, Cohen, Manafort, Sessions, Papadopoulos, the Woodward book, the anonymous New York Times op-ed, his increasing disapproval in the polls and Republicans’ apparent declining prospects in the mid-term elections.

It became obvious last week when Trump’s “Hamlet”-like erratic behavior on the shutdown was on full display.

First he was quoted by the Daily Caller last Tuesday saying he didn’t “like the idea of a shutdown” and wouldn’t cause one before the election. But on Wednesday he seemed to change his mind telling reporters “if (a shutdown) happens, it happens.”

There’s still little-to-no certainty about whether Trump will cause the government to shut its doors.

The next day, Trump said on “Fox and Friends” that he wouldn’t shut down the government before the election but would instead wait until afterwards in the lame duck session of Congress so the shutdown wouldn’t have negative political repercussions for Republicans.

But then on Friday, as The Washington Post’s John Dawsey, who was on the plane, tweeted that Trump told reporters on Air Force One the opposite of what he had indicated on Thursday: A shutdown would be good for the Republicans running for reelection this November.

Last week demonstrated that what Trump says on any given day greatly depends on who he has just talked to. Early last week it was House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), both of whom argued against a shutdown…and Trump agreed.

Trump took his cues later in the week from the people who attended his rallies and responded very enthusiastically when he mentioned a shutdown…and he agreed.

By Friday, Trump cited right-wing icons Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh and Mark Levin as encouraging him to shut down the government to force Congress to give him what he wants for his wall…and once again Trump agreed.

So far Trump has repeatedly huffed and puffed about shutting the government only to back down at the last-minute either in response to a vague promise by Ryan and McConnell to get him his funding later or in response to pleas from the White House staff to sign whatever Congress has sent him.

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But even though Ryan, McConnell and the White House staff will all be part of the play again this time and the outcome may be the same, there will also be several new scenes and characters.

For example, Trump is scheduled to be on the road holding rallies and campaigning for Republicans two more days in September. The pro-shutdown crowds that will be there could have a substantial impact on his thinking.

In addition, Hannity et al. may try to stay in closer touch with Trump over the next few weeks than they have in the past to thwart Ryan, McConnell and the White House staff’s inevitable attempt at last-minute influence.

And, of course, Mueller, Manafort, Sessions and the others will sill be around.

All of this means that the outcome of this shutdown fight, like “Hamlet,” won’t be known until the last act. For the shutdown, that probably means very late on September 30th.

It’s important for Trump to remember, however, that “Hamlet,” while a critical success, was also one of Shakespeare’s greatest tragedies.

Follow Stan Collender on Twitter @thebudgetguy.

 

 

 

Trump’s Latest Promise For No Shutdown Doesn’t Even Last Until Lunch

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I said in this post yesterday that I was unwilling to accept the statement Trump made earlier that afternoon that he wouldn’t cause a government shutdown as anything that would remain in place past lunch (EDT) on Thursday. That was posted at about 3:30 pm.

Turns out I was giving Trump way too much credit. As Politico pointed out, by 5:30 p.m. EDT, about 16 hours before Thursday lunch in Washington, Trump had completely changed his position and said about a federal shutdown, ““If it happens, it happens.”

According to Politico, Trump said:

“If it’s about border security, I’m willing to do anything. We have to protect our borders. If we don’t protect our borders, our country is not going to be a country. So, if it’s about border security, I’m willing to do what has to be done.”

As I said yesterday, Trump continues to be “consistently inconsistent” about a shutdown so everything he says about it on any day should be taken with at least a grain, if not a whole shaker, of salt.

Bottom line: There’s still a 60 percent chance of a shutdown.

 

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Should We Believe Trump When He Says There Will Be No Shutdown?

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Reuters reported on Wednesday that President Donald Trump said there would be no federal government shutdown before the election this November. According to Political WireTrump said, “I don’t like the idea of shutdowns. I don’t see even myself or anybody else closing down the country right now.”

It’s important to ask what Trump means by “right now.”

If this was even close to a normal presidency Trump’s latest statement would immediately get me to reduce what I had said was a 60 percent chance of a shutdown this fall.

But…and to be kind…Trump is not a “traditional” president and this is anything but a normally operating White House.

First, Trump has changed his mind so often on government shutdowns that it’s impossible to know what he really thinks about them. From tweets calling for a “good ‘shutdown'” to rants saying he would never sign another omnibus appropriation if it didn’t include money for his wall between the U.S. and Mexico to his repeatedly backing down from previous threats, Trump’s stance on shutting down the government has been consistently inconsistent.

Second, shutdowns aside, nothing Trump says on any particular day should be taken as gospel. As this great story by Glenn Kessler, Salvador Rizzo and Meg Kelly in The Washington Post details, Trump has made 4,713 false or misleading statements in his first 592 days in office. As a result, he definitely doesn’t deserve the benefit of the doubt about his current position on a shutdown.

Third, there’s almost no doubt in my mind that, as they have in the past, Republican congressional leaders promised Trump something in return for his Reuter’s-reported statement, something they may not be able or plan to deliver. If and when Trump realizes that House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) are playing him…again…all current shutdown bets will be off.

Fourth, we still can’t discount Trump’s needs to divert attention away from Mueller, Manafort, Cohen and now Bob Woodward’s new book. And with Manafort’s second trial set to begin just a week before fiscal 2019 starts and Trump confidant Roger Stone seemingly about to get indicted, the biggest diversion of all will be a shutdown.

Because of all this, I’m unwilling to accept the Trump statement that he won’t cause a government shutdown as anything that will stay in place long-term, that is, past lunch (EDT) tomorrow.

Follow Stan Collender on Twitter @thebudgetguy.

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